Model Performance
Radical transparency: see exactly how accurate our predictions have been.
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Why This Matters▾
Brier Score
Measures prediction accuracy. Lower is better. 0.25 = random guessing, <0.15 = excellent.
Calibration
When we say 60%, it should happen ~60% of the time. Not cherry-picked hindsight.
Full Transparency
We show our weak spots too. No model is perfect—ours is honest about its limits.
Performance Benchmarks▾
What "Good" Looks Like
- • Brier < 0.15 = Excellent (top 5% of models)
- • Brier < 0.20 = Good
- • Accuracy > 55% = Consistently beating coin flips
- • Calibration close to diagonal = Well‑calibrated
Context Matters
- • Football is high‑variance — perfect prediction is impossible
- • Some markets are harder (corners > goals)
- • 5–8% edge over random is meaningful
Try Our Predictions
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